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We formalise and present an innovative general approach for developing complex system models from survey data by applying Bayesian Networks. The challenges and approaches to converting survey data into usable probability forms are explained and a general approach for integrating expert knowledge (judgements) into Bayesian complex system models is presented. The structural complexities of the Bayesian...
The maintenance support process of the equipment with failure prognostics is analyzed carefully in this paper. And the uncertainty factors which exist in this process are presented. Then they are separated into two groups: from the randomness and from the incomplete comprehend. The definitions of each group are given and researched in detail at the same time. And the quantitative analysis method of...
There could be more than one candidate of the support equipments' varieties to accomplish all the maintenance support activities because support activity could be carried out by several different types of support equipments according to the results of maintenance task analysis. As a result, there is a need to conduct research on decision-making method to choose the best candidate of support equipment's...
The economiser is a critical component for efficient operation of coal-fired power stations. It consists of a large system of water-filled tubes which extract heat from the exhaust gases. When it fails, usually due to erosion causing a leak, the entire generator unit must be shut down to effect repairs. Not only are such repairs highly expensive, but the overall repair costs are significantly affected...
Due to the limitation of current condition monitoring technologies, the actual health state of an asset may not be revealed accurately by health inspections. A maintenance strategy ignoring this uncertainty of health state can cause additional costs or downtime. The partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) is a commonly used approach to derive optimal maintenance strategies when the health...
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