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We propose two alternative Bayesian treatment effect modeling and inferential frameworks for panel outcomes to estimate dynamic earnings effects of a long maternity leave on mothers’ subsequent earnings. Modeling of the endogeneity of the treatment and the panel structure of the earnings are based on the modeling tradition of the Roy switching regression model and the shared factor approach, respectively...
Model specification for state space models is a difficult task as one has to decide which components to include in the model and to specify whether these components are fixed or time-varying. To this aim a new model space MCMC method is developed in this paper. It is based on extending the Bayesian variable selection approach which is usually applied to variable selection in regression models to state...
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