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Nowadays, detecting the disaster phenomena and predicting the final stage become very important in the risk analysis view-point. The statistical methods provide accurate estimates of parameters when the data are completely given. However, when the data are incomplete, the accuracy of the estimates becomes poor. Therefore, statistical methods are weak in predicting the future trends. The SIR methods,...
In estimating the number of failures using the truncated data for the Weibull model, we often encounter a case that the estimate is smaller than the true one when we use the likelihood principle to conditional probability. In infectious disease predictions, the SIR model described by simultaneous ordinary differential equations are often used, and this model can predict the final stage condition,...
The trunsored model, which is a new incomplete data model regarded as a unified model of the censored and truncated models in lifetime analysis, can not only estimate the ratio of the fragile population to the mixed fragile and durable populations or the cured and fatal mixed populations, but also test a hypothesis that the ratio is equal to a prescribed value with ease.Since SARS showed a severe...
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