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High-precision wind power forecasting is an essential operation issue of power systems integrated with large numbers of wind farms. In addition to traditional forecasting methods, probabilistic forecasting is recognized as an optimal forecasting solution since it provides a wealth of valuable uncertainty information of wind power. In this paper, a novel approach based on deep neural networks (DNNs)...
The increasing penetration of new variable generations in power systems necessitates the modeling of the stochastic and variable characteristics, especially the modeling of wind power forecast error. A conditional probabilistic dependent method of modeling wind power forecast error of one single wind farm and multiple wind farms is presented in this paper, providing a range of potential forecast error...
Given chaotic characteristics of rockburst data, the state variables reconstructed by multivariate time series were taken as prediction model input to predict the variables of monitoring rockburst, where generalized regression neural network (GRNN) was adopted as prediction model. According to reconstruction parameters computed through mutual information method and false nearest neighbor method, phase...
Aimed at solving the interdependences among reconstruction variables and their parameters, this paper adopted genetic algorithm to determine reconstruction variables and parameters in the phase-space reconstruction of multivariate time series simultaneously. First, the process and method of phase-space reconstruction of multivariate time series are introduced. Then the theory of genetic algorithm...
Genetic algorithm (GA) is applied to select main affecting factors of coal and gas outburst to solve the over-fitting problem of BP neural network (NN) in predicting coal and gas outburst, and a modified BP NN predictor is established, which input variables are the factors selected. In our GA, chromosome is a binary encoding which each gene corresponds to a variable, penalty function is introduced...
As wind power penetrations increase dramatically, wind power forecasting is increasingly becoming one of the fundamental strategies to coordinate wind generators together with thermal or other traditional generators in hybrid power systems. This paper focuses on very short term wind speed forecast based on historical wind speed data. The term wind pattern is proposed in this paper to characterize...
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