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Energy system optimization models (ESOMs) are widely used to generate insight that informs energy and environmental policy. Using ESOMs to produce policy-relevant insight requires significant modeler judgement, yet little formal guidance exists on how to conduct analysis with ESOMs. To address this shortcoming, we draw on our collective modelling experience and conduct an extensive literature review...
Long-range energy scenarios are commonly used to inform national energy policy decisions. Although the scenario approach aims to expand the spectrum of futures considered, in the past energy scenarios have not been diverse enough to include less expected real-world developments. We use a bottom-up energy system model EXPANSE with Modeling to Generate Alternatives (MGA) to assess the diversity of the...
Bottom-up energy system models rely on cost optimization to produce energy scenarios that inform policy analyses, debates and decisions. This paper reviews the rationale for the use of cost optimization and questions whether cost-optimal scenarios are adequate proxies of the real-world energy transition. Evidence from ex-post modeling shows that cost optimization does not approximate the real-world...
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