The Infona portal uses cookies, i.e. strings of text saved by a browser on the user's device. The portal can access those files and use them to remember the user's data, such as their chosen settings (screen view, interface language, etc.), or their login data. By using the Infona portal the user accepts automatic saving and using this information for portal operation purposes. More information on the subject can be found in the Privacy Policy and Terms of Service. By closing this window the user confirms that they have read the information on cookie usage, and they accept the privacy policy and the way cookies are used by the portal. You can change the cookie settings in your browser.
Putting forward a new method of power system medium-long term load forecast model establishment based on state space time-varying parameter equation theory, this work brings state variable into model observable for solution, which reflects the varying rules of equilibrium relation of variables and enhances the veracity for model forecast. The State Space time-varying parameter model describes the...
The volatility of load time series is noteworthy in load forecating analysis. Considering the characteristic of time-varying variance, a feasible method of short term load forecasting based on Stochastic Volatility (SV) models is presented. The Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimate (QMLE) is brought in to specify the standard SV model. The model is transformed into state space form, and the Kalman filter...
Without wind energy, nothing more than load forecast error is taken into account by system operation and there are already many available methodologies for unit commitment. However, by more wind farm penetration in electrical power production, the reliability of the generation system will decrease, because of the fluctuation and the partial unpredictability of wind power production. As a result, conventional...
With the development of power system and the process of electricity market, load forecasting is paid more and more concern to nowadays. In a sense, the precision of load forecasting is crucial to the operation and dispatch of power system while further discussions on the characteristics of the load time series are beneficial. In this paper, by using the rolling windows approach, EGARCH, EGARCH-t and...
It is very important for power system planning and market strategy development to forecast mid and long-term load. Building the mathematic model of the historical data of the forecast object is the pith of the load forecast. However, forecasting accuracy is a challenge when applying both classical load forecast methods or heuristic methods individually. In order to solve this problem, this paper proposes...
In this paper, ARCH (autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) effects of load time series is analyzed and a new feasible method of load forecast based on ARCH model is proposed. The main achievements of the paper involve the following aspects: Firstly, by testing the disturbance series of the classical model, Some witness to the ARCH effect is reported by LM test. Secondly, An ARMA-ARCH model...
Set the date range to filter the displayed results. You can set a starting date, ending date or both. You can enter the dates manually or choose them from the calendar.