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This study attempts to explain the anomaly that firms with high-default risk earn low average realized returns. We measure default risk according to Ohlson's (1980) O-score and Campbell, Hilscher, and Szilagyi's (2008) failure probability and further implement Duffie, Saita, and Wang's (2007) doubly-stochastic intensity model to estimate default probabilities that incorporate the dynamics of the changes...
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