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There is growing interest in designing and applying deterministic techniques that include probabilistic considerations in order to assess increased system stress due to the restructured electricity environment. The overall reliability framework proposed in this paper incorporates the deterministic N-1 criterion in a probabilistic framework, and results in the joint inclusion of both adequacy and static...
The paper presents a practical dynamic security region (PDSR) based dynamic security risk assessment and optimization model for power transmission system. The cost of comprehensive security control and the influence of uncertainties of power injections are considered in the model of dynamic security risk assessment. The transient stability constraints and uncertainties of power injections can be considered...
Considerable research has been devoted on the development of decision-making models suitable for tackling decision problems integrating some amount of uncertainty. However, such approaches are either problem-specific, either too general to suit certain problems. In this paper we propose an approach for performing decision-making under uncertainty suitable for problems in which decisions must be made...
We propose in this paper a novel approach for identifying rare events that may endanger power system integrity. This approach is inspired by the rare-event simulation literature and, in particular, by the cross-entropy (CE) method for rare- event simulation. We propose a general framework for exploiting the CE method in the context of power system reliability evaluation, when a severity function defined...
The transmission system is becoming ever more complex. Furthermore, demand for reliable supply of electricity is growing, increasing the need for a higher level of system reliability. A solution might be to incorporate controllable power components within the system. One such component is the HVDC link. However, in the domain of reliability models for HVDC and the component's impact on the overall...
Reliable operation of power system is fundamental to the on-going industry reform. This paper presents the result of marginal power flow evaluation performed on Korean power system for planning mode. It uses two commercial software packages: physical and operational margins (POM V. 2.2) and probabilistic reliability assessment (PRA V. 3.1), respectively. The case studies of Korea power system for...
This paper introduces the characteristics of relationship between probabilistic reliability (LOLE; loss of load expectation) and deterministic reliability (SRR; supply reserve rate) for 2008 and 2010 years in Korea power system. Korea power system has been using the loss of load expectation criterion (0.5 days/year) to determine the adequacy of installed capacity (ICAP) requirement. The criterion...
Detailed maintenance modeling is indispensable for utilities to determine optimum maintenance policy. Traditional reliability studies assume that transition rates or probabilities in Markov models are accurate. However, in reality, reliability data is either insufficient or mixed with uncertainty. This paper intends to utilize fuzzy set theory to represent parameters for Markov and semi-Markov processes...
This paper presents a reliability assessment of the HVDC converter transformer system (CTS) comparing different component models and configurations. The CTS model is based on the Markov modelling approach, which is shown to be well suited for these relatively small systems. The failure rate data in the models is based on statistical surveys by OGRE. A number of scenarios are calculated in order to...
The Brazilian power grid has traditionally been designed and operated by means of a deterministic reliability criteria set. Although these criteria have successfully eliminated system constraints, they have also entailed higher costs, especially those concerning operation planning. That happens because such deterministic criteria allow quantitative and not- qualitative analysis. Their essential weakness...
Cost-effective maintenance scheduling of power system equipment is critical, especially with present economic scenario of power industry. Apart from long-term maintenance policy, asset planners need to come up with revised short term maintenance strategies mainly due to the shrinking budget allocations for various reasons. The problem may be formulated as follows: if it is the same availability of...
This paper presents a probabilistic reliability planning method for transmission systems. The core of the method is the quantified reliability evaluation technique, which is based on Monte Carlo simulation for transmission and generation and an analytical multiple-state model for an HVDC system. The planning procedure includes comparison among reinforcement alternatives, effect study of retired components,...
This article is an extension of the work presented earlier, which compared and analyzed the economics of alternative maintenance plans. The proposed model combines genetic algorithms with Monte Carlo simulation to arrive at the most economic investment timing. The approach described earlier was characterized by a very long computing time making it difficult to use. This paper addresses several issues...
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