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article

On the choice of obtaining and disclosing the common value in auctions

David Sarne, Shani Alkoby, Esther David, D. Sarne, more

Artificial Intelligence > 2014 > 215 > Complete > 24-54

This paper introduces a game-theoretic analysis of auction settings where bidders' private values depend on an uncertain common value, and the auctioneer has the option to purchase information that can eliminate that uncertainty. Therefore the auctioneer needs to decide whether to purchase the information, and if so, whether to disclose it to the bidders. Unlike prior work, the model assumes that...

article

Optimal management decisions are robust to unknown dynamics in an amphibian metapopulation plagued by disease

B. D. Gerber, B. A. Mosher, L. L. Bailey, E. Muths, more

Animal Conservation > 27 > 1 > 65 - 77

Identifying conservation actions to recover threatened species can be challenging due to many ecological uncertainties. For example, major threats to a species' conservation are commonly known or suspected, but the specific impacts on population or metapopulation dynamics can be uncertain. This is frequently the case with emerging infectious diseases, including chytridiomycosis, a global driver of...

article

The role of product and market information in an online marketplace

Shu Hu, Mike Mingcheng Wei, Shiliang Cui

Production and Operations Management > 32 > 10 > 3100 - 3118

In this paper, we study how provision of product information and/or market information affects buyers' and sellers' behavior and the resultant sales in an online marketplace. We first identify the Pareto‐dominant equilibrium for the sellers' pricing decisions. Then, we study the impact of market parameters on the sales of the platform in equilibrium, under various information structures. We find that...

article

From prediction to decision: Optimizing long‐term care placements among older delayed discharge patients

Ya‐Tang Chuang, Manaf Zargoush, Somayeh Ghazalbash, Saied Samiedaluie, more

Production and Operations Management > 32 > 4 > 1041 - 1058

This study examines long‐term care (LTC) discharge planning among older delayed discharge patients. While awaiting placements in alternate care such as LTC, these patients occupy hospital beds despite not requiring an intensive level of care. This study proposes a novel discharge decision model based on the Markov decision process (MDP) framework, which incorporates predictions regarding the patients'...

article

Value of information with manufacturer encroachment

Huiqi Guan, Zhibin Yang, Haresh Gurnani

Production and Operations Management > 32 > 3 > 780 - 793

We study the value of information in a supply chain where the manufacturer introduces a direct‐selling channel to encroach in the retailer's market. Based on different information structures regarding the direct‐selling cost for the manufacturer, we analyze three models: incomplete information model, asymmetric information model, and full information model. By comparing the firms' profits in these...

article

Assessing the value of monitoring to biological inference and expected management performance for a European goose population

Fred A. Johnson, Jesper Madsen, Kevin K. Clausen, Morten Frederiksen, more

Journal of Applied Ecology > 60 > 1 > 132 - 145

Informed conservation and management of wildlife require sufficient monitoring to understand population dynamics and to direct conservation actions. Because resources available for monitoring are limited, conservation practitioners must strive to make monitoring as cost‐effective as possible. Our focus was on assessing the value of monitoring to the adaptive harvest management (AHM) programme...

article

Optimizing ecological surveys for conservation

Jeffrey O. Hanson, Jenny L. McCune, Iadine Chadès, Caitlyn A. Proctor, more

Journal of Applied Ecology > 60 > 1 > 41 - 51

Conservation decisions must be made with limited funding and incomplete information. Ecological surveys can help reduce uncertainty and, in turn, potentially lead to better management decisions. However, conducting surveys can reduce funds available for implementing management actions and, in turn, can potentially lead to worse conservation outcomes. Here we develop a value of information framework...

article

Robust optimal sensor configuration using the value of information

Sergio Cantero‐Chinchilla, Costas Papadimitriou, Juan Chiachío, Manuel Chiachío, more

Structural Control and Health Monitoring > 29 > 12 > n/a - n/a

Sensing is the cornerstone of any functional structural health monitoring technology, with sensor number and placement being a key aspect for reliable monitoring. We introduce for the first time a robust methodology for optimal sensor configuration based on the value of information that accounts for (1) uncertainties from updatable and nonupdatable parameters, (2) variability of the objective function...

article

Demographic uncertainty and disease risk influence climate‐informed management of an alpine species

Justin A. Gude, Nicholas J. DeCesare, Kelly M. Proffitt, Sarah N. Sells, more

The Journal of Wildlife Management > 86 > 8 > n/a - n/a

Climate change is expected to disproportionately affect species occupying ecosystems with relatively hard boundaries, such as alpine ecosystems. Wildlife managers must identify actions to conserve and manage alpine species into the future, while considering other issues and uncertainties. Climate change and respiratory pathogens associated with widespread pneumonia epidemics in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis...

article

The Social Value of Information: A Test of a Beauty and Nonbeauty Contest

THOMAS LUSTENBERGER, ENZO ROSSI

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking > 54 > 7 > 2125 - 2148

We demonstrate how the precision of public and private information can be measured and their welfare implications can be assessed. To this end, we develop and apply a procedure to test welfare results from a beauty and nonbeauty contest model based on survey forecasts of interest rates in a large country sample over an extended period of time. In most countries, interest rate forecasts are unbiased...

article

Exploring the misalignment on the value of further research between payers and manufacturers. A case study on a novel total artificial heart

Carlo Federici, Leandro Pecchia

Health Economics > 31 > S1 > 98 - 115

Payers and manufacturers can disagree on the appropriate level of evidence that is required for new medical devices, resulting in high societal costs due to decisions taken with sub‐optimal information. A cost‐effectiveness model of a hypothetical total artificial heart was built using data from the literature and the (simulated) results of a pivotal study. The expected value of perfect information...

article

Spread of Nontyphoidal Salmonella in the Beef Supply Chain in Northern Tanzania: Sensitivity in a Probabilistic Model Integrating Microbiological Data and Data from Stakeholder Interviews

Ruth N. Zadoks, Gary C. Barker, Jackie Benschop, Kathryn J. Allan, more

Risk Analysis > 42 > 5 > 989 - 1006

East Africa is a hotspot for foodborne diseases, including infection by nontyphoidal Salmonella (NTS), a zoonotic pathogen that may originate from livestock. Urbanization and increased demand for animal protein drive intensification of livestock production and food processing, creating risks and opportunities for food safety. We built a probabilistic mathematical model, informed by prior beliefs and...

article

Communication of personalised disease risk by general practitioners to motivate smoking cessation in England: a cost‐effectiveness and research prioritisation study

Alexander Adamson, Laura Portas, Simone Accordini, Alessandro Marcon, more

Addiction > 117 > 5 > 1438 - 1449

Background and Aims Communication of personalised disease risk can motivate smoking cessation. We assessed whether routine implementation of this intervention by general practitioners (GPs) in England is cost‐effective or whether we need further research to better establish its effectiveness. Design Cost‐effectiveness analysis (CEA) with value of information (VoI) analysis from the UK National...

article

Producing valuable information from hydrologic models of nature‐based solutions for water

Kate A. Brauman, Leah L. Bremer, Perrine Hamel, Boris F. Ochoa‐Tocachi, more

Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management > 18 > 1 > 135 - 147

Nature‐based solutions (NBS) are an increasingly popular approach to water resources management, with a growing number of projects designed to take advantage of landscape effects on water flow. As NBS for water are developed, producing hydrologic information to inform decisions often requires substantial investment in data acquisition and modeling; for this effort to be worthwhile, the information...

article

Risk Analysis Approaches to Evaluating Health Impacts from Land‐Based Pollution in Low‐ and Middle‐Income Countries

Pamela R. D. Williams, Katherine Stackelberg, Mayra Gabriela Guerra Lopez, Ernesto Sanchez‐Triana

Risk Analysis > 41 > 11 > 1971 - 1986

Risk analysis offers a useful framework for evaluating and managing environmental health risks across different settings. In this Perspective, we question whether the principles and practice of risk analysis could be beneficial in the context of land‐based pollution in low‐ and middle‐income countries (LMICs) to better support risk‐based decision making. Specifically, potential health and economic...

article

An example to illustrate several aspects of optimization theory in Managerial Economics

Somdeb Lahiri

Managerial Economics > 2021 > Vol. 22, no. 1 > 23--34

We provide a single example that illustrates all aspects of linear, integer and dynamic programming, including such concepts such as value of perfect and imperfect information. Such problems, though extremely plausible and realistic are hardly ever discussed in managerial economics.

article

A value of information methodology for multiobjective decisions in quantitative set‐based design

Nicholas J. Shallcross, Gregory S. Parnell, Ed Pohl, Simon R. Goerger

Systems Engineering > 24 > 6 > 409 - 424

Engineering complex systems is an exercise in sequential multiobjective decision making under uncertainty. One method for handling this complexity and uncertainty is set‐based design (SBD). SBD is a concurrent engineering and management methodology that develops, analyzes, and matures numerous design options, reducing risk and delivering higher value to the stakeholders and end users. SBD accomplishes...

article

An Axiomatic Model of Persuasion

Alexander M. Jakobsen

Econometrica > 89 > 5 > 2081 - 2116

A sender ranks information structures knowing that a receiver processes the information before choosing an action affecting them both. The sender and receiver may differ in their utility functions and/or prior beliefs, yielding a model of dynamic inconsistency when they represent the same individual at two points in time. I take as primitive (i) a collection of preference orderings over all information...

article

Opening up the black box: Technological transparency and prevention

Lu Li

Journal of Risk and Insurance > 88 > 3 > 665 - 693

We discuss the behavioral and welfare implications of uncovering determinants of successful prevention. Based on a novel reinterpretation of prevention, we introduce the concept of technological transparency (TT)—the extent to which scientific knowledge allows agents to predict the success of their effort conditional on observable risk determinants. When risk determinants are observable ex ante, TT...

article

Weighing the unknowns: Value of Information for biological and operational uncertainty in invasion management

Shou‐Li Li, Joseph Keller, Michael C. Runge, Katriona Shea

Journal of Applied Ecology > 58 > 8 > 1621 - 1630

The management of biological invasions is a worldwide conservation priority. Unfortunately, decision‐making on optimal invasion management can be impeded by lack of information about the biological processes that determine invader success (i.e. biological uncertainty) or by uncertainty about the effectiveness of candidate interventions (i.e. operational uncertainty). Concurrent assessment of both...

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Search results

On the choice of obtaining and disclosing the common value in auctions

Optimal management decisions are robust to unknown dynamics in an amphibian metapopulation plagued by disease

The role of product and market information in an online marketplace

From prediction to decision: Optimizing long‐term care placements among older delayed discharge patients

Value of information with manufacturer encroachment

Assessing the value of monitoring to biological inference and expected management performance for a European goose population

Optimizing ecological surveys for conservation

Robust optimal sensor configuration using the value of information

Demographic uncertainty and disease risk influence climate‐informed management of an alpine species

The Social Value of Information: A Test of a Beauty and Nonbeauty Contest

Exploring the misalignment on the value of further research between payers and manufacturers. A case study on a novel total artificial heart

Spread of Nontyphoidal Salmonella in the Beef Supply Chain in Northern Tanzania: Sensitivity in a Probabilistic Model Integrating Microbiological Data and Data from Stakeholder Interviews

Communication of personalised disease risk by general practitioners to motivate smoking cessation in England: a cost‐effectiveness and research prioritisation study

Producing valuable information from hydrologic models of nature‐based solutions for water

Risk Analysis Approaches to Evaluating Health Impacts from Land‐Based Pollution in Low‐ and Middle‐Income Countries

An example to illustrate several aspects of optimization theory in Managerial Economics

A value of information methodology for multiobjective decisions in quantitative set‐based design

An Axiomatic Model of Persuasion

Opening up the black box: Technological transparency and prevention

Weighing the unknowns: Value of Information for biological and operational uncertainty in invasion management

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