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article

Reaping the Benefits and Avoiding the Risks: Unrealistic Optimism in the Health Domain

Yaniv Hanoch, Jonathan Rolison, Alexandra M. Freund

People's perceptions of benefits and risks play a key role in their acceptance or rejection of medical interventions, yet these perceptions may be poorly calibrated. This online study with N = 373 adults aged 19–76 years focused on unrealistic optimism in the health domain. Participants indicated how likely they were to experience benefits and risks associated with medical conditions and completed...

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Accident frequency and unrealistic optimism: Children’s assessment of risk

Mary Sissons Joshi, Morag Maclean, Claire Stevens

Accident Analysis & Prevention > 2018 > 111 > C > 142-146

Accidental injury is a major cause of mortality and morbidity among children, warranting research on their risk perceptions. Three hundred and seven children aged 10–11 years assessed the frequency, danger and personal risk likelihood of 8 accidents. Two social-cognitive biases were manifested. The frequency of rare accidents (e.g. drowning) was overestimated, and the frequency of common accidents...

article

Optimistic belief updating despite inclusion of positive events

Joseph Marks, Stephanie Baines

Learning and Motivation > 2017 > 58 > C > 88-101

A recent methodology – namely, the belief update task – used in the study of unrealistic optimism has provided a mechanistic account of how people maintain positive illusions about their future in the face of disconfirming evidence. This methodology has been used in a series of neuroscientific studies and neural moderators of unrealistic optimism have been established. A subsequent critique of the...

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The optimist within? Selective sampling and self-deception

Leslie van der Leer, Ryan McKay

Consciousness and Cognition > 2017 > 50 > C > 23-29

The nature and existence of self-deception is controversial. On a classic conception, self-deceived individuals carry two conflicting representations of reality. Proponents of an alternative, deflationary account dispute this, arguing that putative cases of self-deception simply reflect distorted information processing. To investigate these alternatives, we adapted a paradigm from the “crowd-within”...

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What is unrealistic optimism?

Anneli Jefferson, Lisa Bortolotti, Bojana Kuzmanovic

Consciousness and Cognition > 2017 > 50 > C > 3-11

Here we consider the nature of unrealistic optimism and other related positive illusions. We are interested in whether cognitive states that are unrealistically optimistic are belief states, whether they are false, and whether they are epistemically irrational. We also ask to what extent unrealistically optimistic cognitive states are fixed. Based on the classic and recent empirical literature on...

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Understanding the coherence of the severity effect and optimism phenomena: Lessons from attention

Adam J.L. Harris

Consciousness and Cognition > 2017 > 50 > C > 30-44

Claims that optimism is a near-universal characteristic of human judgment seem to be at odds with recent results from the judgment and decision making literature suggesting that the likelihood of negative outcomes are overestimated relative to neutral outcomes. In an attempt to reconcile these seemingly contrasting phenomena, inspiration is drawn from the attention literature in which there is evidence...

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Comparative Optimism and Event Skewness

Jason P. Rose, Olivia Aspiras, Erin Vogel, Heather Haught, more

Journal of Behavioral Decision Making > 30 > 2 > 236 - 255

Comparative judgment biases—wherein a majority of people report being above‐ or below‐average in their abilities, traits, or future events—are a robust phenomenon in psychology. A recent explanation for these biases has focused on people's awareness that many comparative judgment domains form skewed distributions, and, hence, a majority of people can feasibly be above or below average. Indeed, this...

article

Perception of injury risk among amateur Muay Thai fighters

Stephen Strotmeyer, Reidar P. Lystad

Injury Epidemiology > 2017 > 4 > 1 > 1-6

Background Muay Thai is a style of kickboxing that allows full-contact blows to an unprotected head, torso and legs, and, as in any combat sport, there is an inherent risk of injury. Previous observational studies have shown there is a substantial risk of injury in competitive kickboxing. None of these studies, however, have investigated the potential role of psychological risk factors and, consequently,...

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Concurrently examining unrealistic absolute and comparative optimism: Temporal shifts, individual‐difference and event‐specific correlates, and behavioural outcomes

Joelle C. Ruthig, Bradlee W. Gamblin, Kelly Jones, Karen Vanderzanden, more

British Journal of Psychology > 108 > 1 > 107 - 126

Researchers have spent considerable effort examining unrealistic absolute optimism and unrealistic comparative optimism, yet there is a lack of research exploring them concurrently. This longitudinal study repeatedly assessed unrealistic absolute and comparative optimism within a performance context over several months to identify the degree to which they shift as a function of proximity to performance...

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A pessimistic view of optimistic belief updating

Punit Shah, Adam J.L. Harris, Geoffrey Bird, Caroline Catmur, more

Cognitive Psychology > 2016 > 90 > C > 71-127

Received academic wisdom holds that human judgment is characterized by unrealistic optimism, the tendency to underestimate the likelihood of negative events and overestimate the likelihood of positive events. With recent questions being raised over the degree to which the majority of this research genuinely demonstrates optimism, attention to possible mechanisms generating such a bias becomes ever...

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Effects of Self‐Affirmation, Narratives, and Informational Messages in Reducing Unrealistic Optimism About Alcohol‐Related Problems Among College Students

Hye Kyung Kim, Jeff Niederdeppe

Human Communication Research > 42 > 2 > 246 - 268

This study examines intervention approaches to improve the accuracy of risk judgments among college students with unrealistic optimism about alcohol‐related problems. We conducted a randomized experiment with 2 self‐affirmation (affirmed, nonaffirmed) and 3 message conditions (narrative, informational, no treatment control). Results indicate that providing risk information to unrealistic optimists, while concomitantly protecting their self‐concept via either self‐affirmation or narratives, may reduce defensive reactions and align their perceived risk more closely with their actual risk. Self‐affirmation reduced unrealistic optimism only among those exposed to an informational message, not those exposed to a narrative. The narrative message appeared to increase perceived risk among unrealistic optimists via transportation and identification with the character. We discuss theoretical and practical implications of this work...

article

Comparative optimism about healthy eating

Gudrun Sproesser, Verena Klusmann, Harald T. Schupp, Britta Renner

Appetite > 2015 > 90 > Complete > 212-218

The present study investigated people's perception of their own as compared to their peers' healthy eating and related these perceptions to actual healthy eating, BMI, and subsequent healthy eating behavior. Data were collected within the framework of the longitudinal cohort study Konstanz Life Study (T1: N = 770; T2: N = 510). Our results demonstrated an optimistic bias on the group level. Specifically,...

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The Relationship of Perceived Risk and Biases in Perceived Risk to Fracture Prevention Behavior in Older Women

Salene M. W. Jones, Nancy M. Gell, Joshua A. Roth, Delia Scholes, more

Annals of Behavioral Medicine > 2015 > 49 > 5 > 696-703

Background A bias in perceived risk for health outcomes, including fracture, exists. Purpose We compared perceived risk and biases in perceived risk for fracture to fracture preventive behavior. Methods Women over age 55 (n = 2874) completed a survey five times over 5 years, and data was pulled from the medical record. Perceived risk was measured by asking women to rate their risk of fracture...

article

Unrealistic optimism and ‘nosognosia’: Illness recognition in the healthy brain

Ryan McKay, Andreas Buchmann, Nicole Germann, Shancong Yu, more

Cortex > 2014 > 61 > C > 141-147

At the centenary of research on anosognosia, the time seems ripe to supplement work in anosognosic patients with empirical studies on nosognosia in healthy participants. To this end, we adopted a signal detection framework to investigate the lateralized recognition of illness words – an operational measure of nosognosia – in healthy participants. As positively biased reports about one's current health...

article

Motivated perception of probabilistic information

Heather C. Lench, Rachel Smallman, Kathleen E. Darbor, Shane W. Bench

Cognition > 2014 > 133 > 2 > 429-442

Desirability bias is the tendency to judge that, all else being equal, positive outcomes are more likely to occur than negative outcomes. The provision of probabilistic information about the likelihood that events will occur is typically viewed as a way to influence judgments by grounding them in objective information. Yet probabilistic information may be perceived differently when people are motivated...

article

The bias in the bias: Comparative optimism as a function of event social undesirability

Steven Sweldens, Stefano Puntoni, Gabriele Paolacci, Maarten Vissers

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes > 2014 > 124 > 2 > 229-244

We present a new event-level predictor of comparative optimism: comparative optimism is larger for more socially undesirable events. A meta-analysis shows that event social undesirability predicts comparative optimism effect sizes reported in the literature, over and above the effects of other known predictors. Four experiments corroborate this finding and demonstrate the key role played by respondents’...

article

Are agricultural quad bike loss-of-control events driven by unrealistic optimism?

Lynne Clay, Gareth J. Treharne, E. Jean C. Hay-Smith, Stephan Milosavljevic

Safety Science > 2014 > 66 > Complete > 54-60

Quad bikes are used extensively in agriculture. Use of these vehicles, however, carries some risk. The promotion of safety behaviours has not reduced this risk. This study tested the hypotheses that farmers with greater unrealistic optimism (UO), fatalistic beliefs or a propensity for risk-taking are more susceptible to quad bike loss-of-control events (LCEs). A cross-sectional study recruited 216...

article

The Effects of Expectation Disconfirmation on Appraisal, Affect, and Behavioral Intentions

Kate Sweeny, Amanda Dillard

Risk Analysis > 34 > 4 > 711 - 720

People's risk perceptions can have powerful effects on their outcomes, yet little is known about how people respond to risk information that disconfirms a prior expectation. We experimentally examined the affective, cognitive, and behavioral consequences of expectation disconfirmation in the context of risk perceptions. Participants were randomly assigned and then prompted toward either a high or...

article

Comparative optimism among patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) is associated with fewer adverse clinical events 12 months later

David Hevey, Hannah M. McGee, John H. Horgan

Journal of Behavioral Medicine > 2014 > 37 > 2 > 300-307

The current study evaluates the levels of comparative optimism among patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) and examines its relationship to health outcomes 12 months later. 164 patients completed self-report questionnaires at the end of cardiac rehabilitation and the number of adverse clinical events in the following 12 months were recorded. Comparative optimism was assessed in relation to a...

article

Vestibular stimulation attenuates unrealistic optimism

Ryan McKay, Corinne Tamagni, Antonella Palla, Peter Krummenacher, more

Cortex > 2013 > 49 > 8 > 2272-2275

Unrealistic optimism refers to the pervasive tendency of healthy individuals to underestimate their likelihood of future misfortune, including illness. The phenomenon shares a qualitative resemblance with anosognosia, a neurological disorder characterized by a deficient appreciation of manifest current illness or impairment. Unrealistic optimism and anosognosia have been independently associated with...

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Search results

Reaping the Benefits and Avoiding the Risks: Unrealistic Optimism in the Health Domain

Accident frequency and unrealistic optimism: Children’s assessment of risk

Optimistic belief updating despite inclusion of positive events

The optimist within? Selective sampling and self-deception

What is unrealistic optimism?

Understanding the coherence of the severity effect and optimism phenomena: Lessons from attention

Comparative Optimism and Event Skewness

Perception of injury risk among amateur Muay Thai fighters

Concurrently examining unrealistic absolute and comparative optimism: Temporal shifts, individual‐difference and event‐specific correlates, and behavioural outcomes

A pessimistic view of optimistic belief updating

Effects of Self‐Affirmation, Narratives, and Informational Messages in Reducing Unrealistic Optimism About Alcohol‐Related Problems Among College Students

Comparative optimism about healthy eating

The Relationship of Perceived Risk and Biases in Perceived Risk to Fracture Prevention Behavior in Older Women

Unrealistic optimism and ‘nosognosia’: Illness recognition in the healthy brain

Motivated perception of probabilistic information

The bias in the bias: Comparative optimism as a function of event social undesirability

Are agricultural quad bike loss-of-control events driven by unrealistic optimism?

The Effects of Expectation Disconfirmation on Appraisal, Affect, and Behavioral Intentions

Comparative optimism among patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) is associated with fewer adverse clinical events 12 months later

Vestibular stimulation attenuates unrealistic optimism

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