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As COVID‐19 drags on and new vaccines promise widespread immunity, the world's attention has turned to predicting how the present pandemic will end. How do societies know when an epidemic is over and normal life can resume? What criteria and markers indicate such an end? Who has the insight, authority, and credibility to decipher these signs? Detailed research on past epidemics has demonstrated that...
We analysed a plague outbreak in the mining town of Freiberg in Saxony which started in May 1613 and ended in February 1614. This epidemic was selected for study because of the high quality of contemporary sources. It was possible to identify 1400 individual victims meaning that more than 10% of the population of the city perished. The outbreak was modelled by 9 differential equations describing flea,...
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