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A simple equation is considered whose empirical analysis could confirm – or reject – the validity of Thirlwall’s Law. Autoregressive Distributed Lags (Bounds) approach is used to establish the empirical adequacy of the Law. The analysis, working with data for 58 countries and covering the years 1960-2012, suggests that the Law may not hold for the decisive majority of countries considered.
Thirlwall’s Law is found to be the necessary but not sufficient condition for balanced long-run growth. A simple equation is considered whose empirical analysis could confirm—or reject—the validity of the Law. The analysis, conducted by means of econometric co-integration using the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares method applied to data for 59 countries covering the years 1960–2012, suggests that Thirlwall’s...
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