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In decadal prediction, the objective is to exploit both the sources of predictability from the external radiative forcings and from the internal variability to provide the best possible climate information for the next decade. Predicting the climate system internal variability relies on initialising the climate model from observational estimates. We present a refined method of anomaly initialisation...
The quality of a multimodel of six coupled climate forecast systems initialized with observations—relative to the accompanying uninitialized system—to re-forecast the future annual-mean North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) departures is described. The study concludes that, measured by the anomaly correlation (AC) skill, the evolution of the leading two empirical orthogonal function modes of...
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