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The following topics were dealt with: engineering management theory; supply chain; game theory; project management; maintenance strategy; production planning; power system; electric power distributors; energy economy strategies; energy development strategies; risk management; technology innovation; services management; etc.
This paper develops a kind of generalized double-sided moral hazard model of contract choice with Cobb-Douglas technology in a frame of principal-agent theory. Using this model, we formally prove that the optimal contract maximizes the output net of the disutility of both the parties and carry out some simulations exercise under two special cases which help explain the double-sided moral hazard issues...
As the power load forecasting sequence has stochastic growth and nonlinear wave characteristics, grey neural network model can effective reflect the growth properties of the sequence and fit the nonlinear relation. Markov chain can easily embody the random characteristic of system by complex factors, so the Markov chain error correction method was introduce in this paper, the whole forecasting precision...
In the electricity market of imperfect competition, the behavior of generation bidding is affected by many risk factors, which include fuel price, weather condition, load forecasting and so on. The potential impact of bidding strategy is quantitative calculation, which adapted from risk factors; the risk management on bidding strategy choice is brought forward, and considering the diversity of risk...
In view of electricity customer credit evaluation lacking of precise index system and hardly quantifying subjective factors and experience factors, fuzzy expected value decision-making method modified by least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) is presented. Firstly, electricity customer credit evaluation index system is constructed; the indices values and subjective experiences values are given...
Internet is expected to be especially beneficial to the banking industry. As more and more financial institutions are finding ways to utilize Internet technologies to launch online banking services, an important issue is to understand what factors will impact the decisions of customers in adopting such services. Based on the UTAUT model, the D&M IS success model, and the concept of trust, this...
This paper aims at providing a realistic method to measure liquidity risk of China's stock market and data base for China's stock market liquidity risk management. The construction of research model is based on VaR method and the analysis method is adopted to calculate the VaR. The total sample is 121 shares, which are selected according to industry and region. Empirical research results show that...
Starting with the theory and research status on the information security risk assessment, this paper puts forward information security risk evaluation method based on analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, and solves the difficulty of the qualitative index and quantitative evaluation in the risk assessment process. Finally, it gives examples to prove that this method can be...
It is proved that the individual risk models for a single period are equivalent to the collective risk models for a single period when the number-of-claim random variable has 0-1 distribution. Furthermore, the individual risk model is close to a compound Poisson distribution when the number-of-claim random variable has a Poisson distribution with small parameter. Applying the Panjer iteration as calculation...
China, located in the northwestern Pacific, is severely affected by typhoon, and typhoon damage to light steel buildings cause substantial economic losses in China. Field surveys of typhoon damage in Dalian had revealed that light steel building has the high risk of typhoon disasters. The goal of this study is to describe the framework of risk management of typhoon disaster to light steel building,...
Construction project risk allocation is one of the problems which all the project participants concerning about. On the basis of studying the principles of project risk allocation, this paper establish the evaluating indicator that evaluates the risk carrying capacity of all the project participants. The evaluating factor set in the risk allocation is determined, the integrated risk allocation coefficients...
Early warning index system of enterprise international business reputation risk is the core of the management in the early warning of enterprise international reputation risk as well as a basis on which overall evaluation model of the enterprise international reputation is built. The early warning index system of enterprise international reputation risk - first-level indexes - includes seven categories...
Risk appraisal, in which the input and output of alliance is evaluated quantify, is the important stage in the overall performance appraisal of enterprise technology alliance. In this paper, on the basis of index system of risk appraisal of alliance, appraisal model with entropy has been established. The author believes that would be reference to come into being steady alliance between enterprises.
Hazards is an objective existence that is the root cause of the accident, but it will not necessarily become an angerous source of danger, so we should carry out risk assessment. This idea will be applied to the security management of power supply enterprise, and proposed the risk evaluation index system based on the dangerous source of power supply enterprise which in accordance with the idea of...
Under a market environments, there are a lot of uncertainties, such as fluctuation of power prices, shortage of fuel supply and rising of fuel prices, which make generators encounter serious profits loss risk. For stabilizing profits, it is necessary for generators to establish an efficient and optimal risk management technique mix. By adopting the real option, this paper establishes a real option...
Construction Enterprises need to implement ERP projects to constantly improve their competitiveness in the future. However, as having been proved to be an enormously invested and systematically risky project, ERP usually makes construction enterprises fall into "two-difficult" choices. Therefore, a scientific risk evaluation is urgently needed to increase the success rate of ERP project...
The paper proposes the method of risk assessment based on route analysis and variable weight fuzzy evaluation. Firstly, it is on the basis of route analysis, and mines each stage and its critical factors of engineering project; and analyzes each uncertainly measuring with the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation; then solves the deferring characteristic of risk in engineering project using variable...
The paper proposes credit risk assessment model of commercial banks based on fuzzy probabilistic neural network model (FPNN) which combines the relative membership degree in fuzzy mathematics with Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN). The model makes up for a deficiency of ANN and BP arithmetic. Finally, an example is used to prove the calculation of this method is succinct rapid, and the evaluative...
This paper is to introduce a model. In the analysis of contract risk recognition, redundant variables in the samples spoil the performance of the SVM classifier and reduce the recognition accuracy. On the other hand, we usually canpsilat label one risk as absolutely good, or absolutely bad. In order to solve the problems mentioned above, this paper used rough sets (RS) as a preprocessor of SVM to...
In risk evaluation of agent management projects, the critical factors which influence rationality of the result are how to estimate risk evaluation index weight and the measurement of risk index. For the risk evaluation index weight account, this thesis proposes risk index weight calculation method which combines AHP method and clustering methodology. This method reduces the anthropic factors of expert...
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