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In this paper we discuss the results of extensive research on supply chain modelling and analysis in high-tech supply chains. We distinguish between the forecast-driven and the customer-order-driven part of the supply chain. For each part we present a generic model that captures real-life complexity of high-tech supply chains. With each model comes a class of operational control policies that coordinate...
This paper looks at the effect of multiple reviewers and their behavior on the quality and efficiency of peer review. By extending a previous model, we tested various reviewer behavior, fair, random and strategic, and examined the impact of selecting multiple reviewers for the same author submission. We found that, when reviewer reliability is random or reviewers behave strategically, involving more...
The continued popularity of social media in the dissemination of ideas and the unique features of that channel create important research opportunities in the study of rumor contagion. Using an agent-based modeling framework, we study agent behavior in the spread of competing rumors through an endogenous costly exercise of measured networked interactions whereby agents update their position, opinion...
Output comparison between simulation model and real world reference system is commonly regarded to be the acid test of model credibility. As sound as the comparison-based approach may seem, serious epistemological and methodological qualifications have been made concerning the foundations of the concept, its applicability, and its dependence from the chosen philosophical perspective. The article reviews...
Customized planning, engineering and construction of one-of-a-kind products (like wind energy, biogas or power plants) are complex and contain a lot of risks and temporal uncertainties, e.g. of logistics and project schedules. Therefore the management of this kind of projects has to be supported by adequate methods for the estimation of project risks and uncertainties. Based on the results of the...
The aim of the PhD research was to contribute to improving fisheries management. The overall purpose was to select applicable modeling techniques, develop models and simulate the dynamics of fisheries management with the aim of comparing different management strategies by looking at their impact on selected indicators. The indicators are biological, economic or social. The main contribution of the...
Modeling and Simulation is both multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary. While this provides great benefits to the discipline, it poses great challenges in that 1) the body of knowledge is often dispersed in application areas and 2) each application area develops and uses methods that are seemingly unconnected with one another and are difficult to relate into a cohesive body of knowledge. In this...
Simulation is used to evaluate the performance of alternative service-rate controls designed to stabilize performance in a queue with time-varying arrival rate, service in order of arrival and unlimited waiting space. Both Markovian and non-Markovian models are considered. Customer service requirements are specified separately from the service rate, which is subject to control. New versions of the...
This paper describes a novel discrete event simulation (DES) methodology for the evaluation of aviation training tenders where performance is measured against “best performance” criteria. The objective was to assess and compare multiple aviation training schedules and their resource allocation plans against predetermined training objectives. This research originated from the need to evaluate tender...
The potential of cloud computing is gaining significant interest in Modeling & Simulation (M&S). The underlying concept of using computing power as a utility is very attractive to users that can access state-of- the-art hardware and software without capital investment. Moreover, the cloud computing characteristics of rapid elasticity and the ability to scale up or down according to workload...
Effects of demand variations on inventory management has long been recognized in academics and practice. Disney et al. (2015) showed that the periodic review order-up-to policy is more feasible for controlling fill rate and avoid over investment of warehouse under auto-correlated normally distributed demand of consumer electronics. Jalali and Nieuwenhuyse (2015) concluded that simulation method is...
Spare part management is essential to many organizations, since excess inventory leads to high holding costs and stock outs can greatly impact operations performance, but it is a major problem in the testing work shop in Robert Bosch China Diesel (RBCD) Wuxi. The workshop is used to test the functionality of the injectors, such as those statistics for pressure, electro conductivity, etc. After implementing...
Sequential experimental design for computer experiments is frequently used to construct surrogate regression models of complex blackbox simulators when evaluations are expensive. The same methodology can be used to train classifiers of labeled data which is expensive to obtain. For certain problems classification can be a more appropriate method to obtain a solution with fewer samples.
This research effort demonstrates an analysis and simulation methodology a manufacturer could employ to determine the recommended vehicle architecture that maximizes profit, while complying with government corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards. We scope our target system to a Jeep multipurpose vehicle (MPV) segment by Fiat Chrysler, which is a crucial part of the manufacturer's product portfolio...
The challenges of integrating unpredictable wind energy into a power system can be alleviated using energy storage devices. We assessed a single domestic energy system with a wind turbine and a battery. We investigated the best operation mode of the battery such that the occurrence of large power spills is minimized. To estimate the small probability of large power spills, we used the splitting technique...
In grocery retail supply chains, a single retailer with a large market share is delivered by many suppliers. For replenishment decisions the retailer (or the supplier in case of Vendor Managed Inventory) has to make a tradeoff between keeping more inventory or using a higher replenishment frequency. In models studying this tradeoff inventory and transportation capacities are often fixed and costs...
This document describes the current state of the Adversary Dynamics Modeling (ADM) project currently under development. Given the dynamic nature of the terrorist threat, the purpose of this modeling effort is to increase current understanding of adversarial decision-making processes and possible behavior in order to help guide countermeasure technology decisions and deployment. The system dynamics...
Agent_Zero is a formal alternative to the rational actor model that has dominated social science since the 1940s. This software individual is the first to be endowed with distinct affective, deliberative, and social modules. Grounded in neuroscience, these internal facets interact to produce far-from-rational individual behavior. And when ensembles of these agents interact spatially they generate...
This paper presents a study about soybean and corn multimodal transportation and storage, from farm to port, considering the resources, locations and interferences. The harvest seasonality, climatic changes, road conditions, truck availability and warehouse options configure a very complex system with dozen of options. A simulation model was developed to evaluate and discover the better option under...
At The Boeing Company, stock levels for maintenance spares with substantial lead times must be established before fielding new aircraft designs. Initial calculations use mean time between demand estimates developed by the engineering department. After sufficient operating hours, stock levels are recalculated using statistical forecasts of maintenance history. A Bayesian forecasting method was developed...
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