The first population projection by education level of the Poland's population until the year 2030 is presented. The projecton is based on the multi-state projection model LIPRO developed by E. van Imhoff and N. Keilman (1991) and the LIPRO 4.0 software. The initial population as well as the model parameters were calculated for the year 2002 on the basis of the National Population Census data and the Labour Force Survey data. The projection was prepared under an assumption on the constant parameters up to the year 2030. The differences in mortality and fertility by education attainment were also taken into consideration. The projection results for the years 2002-2006 were compared with the observed values to check the assumptions formulated. The projection results show that the increasing enrolment at the tertiary and secondary levels of education among the baby boomers born in the mid-1970s and the early 1980s will dramatically change the population composition by education in the next two decades. The percentage of people with tertiary education in the working age population (15-59/64) will increase from 12% in the year 2002 to 35% in the year 2030. Moreover, the analysis was performed to demonstrate changes in the life expectancy at birth (e0) and the total fertility rate (TFR) which can be attributed to the changing population composition by education and existing differences in mortality and fertility by education, to be kept in the future. Until 2030 the life expectancy increases by about 2.2 years for men and 2.0 years for women only because of the shifts in the education composition. On the other hand, this factor was found as not contributing to the fertility changes in the next years.
Financed by the National Centre for Research and Development under grant No. SP/I/1/77065/10 by the strategic scientific research and experimental development program:
SYNAT - “Interdisciplinary System for Interactive Scientific and Scientific-Technical Information”.