CONSEQUENCES OF MILK QUOTA ABOLITION FOR THE POLISH AGRICULTURE WITH FOCUS ON THE REGIONAL DIFFERENTIATION (Konsekwencje zniesienia kwot mlecznych dla polskiego rolnictwa z uwzglednieniem zróznicowania regionalnego)
The research was to simulate the effects of milk quota abolition for the Polish dairy producers, in the context of regional differentiation. The CAPRI partial equilibrium model (Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact) was used to carry out an analysis of the impact of milk quota regime changes on the agri-food sector. The model allows to examine the impact of agricultural policy changes on the agricultural sector across the European Union at the national and regional level. Two scenarios of intervention on the milk market have been analysed. Under the first scenario abolition of the milk quota beyond 2015 is assumed according to the decision of the EU Commission, while the second scenario provides for its continuation. The simulation results prove that the milk production, yield and number of animals at the national level would be similar irrespective of the scenario. However, discrepancies between the scenarios in particular regions would be significant. Abolition of milk quota may be conducive to a consolidation of the existing production structures and strengthening of production polarization. Thus, the sector efficiency would improve at the national level while the gaps in milk production sector development would widen among the regions. Continuation of the milk quota scheme would result in a relatively faster production growth in the currently less developed regions than in those with higher milk production. Therefore, milk quota scheme is conducive to equalisation of production conditions at the national level.
Financed by the National Centre for Research and Development under grant No. SP/I/1/77065/10 by the strategic scientific research and experimental development program:
SYNAT - “Interdisciplinary System for Interactive Scientific and Scientific-Technical Information”.