The aim of this article is to discuss causes of voter turnout change in Poland. Polish National Election Study data for the 2005 and 2007 parliamentary elections are used. The article presents theoretical model of voter turnout change. Then it proposes research design for investigating voter turnout dynamics and two alternative hypotheses explaining this phenomenon. First explains voter turnout change by referring to macro level processes, second emphasises the role of micro level dynamics. Empirical analyses suggest that voter turnout changes in Poland occur first of all due to micro level changes (transitions from voting to abstention or vice versa), and not because of macro level processes (changes within the electorate structure). Instability of voter turnout is not random - there are many statistically significant correlates of this phenomenon, such as gender, age, satisfaction with democracy.
Financed by the National Centre for Research and Development under grant No. SP/I/1/77065/10 by the strategic scientific research and experimental development program:
SYNAT - “Interdisciplinary System for Interactive Scientific and Scientific-Technical Information”.