The literature concerning so-called 'simple' statistical prediction methods suggests that there is no possibility to estimate the mean error in prediction for these methods. This article shows that there is such possibility. As an example the author considers the 'status quo' method and the extrapolation of the mean method and derives the formulas for the mean error in prediction for these methods. The author also compares estimated mean errors in prediction for both methods.
Financed by the National Centre for Research and Development under grant No. SP/I/1/77065/10 by the strategic scientific research and experimental development program:
SYNAT - “Interdisciplinary System for Interactive Scientific and Scientific-Technical Information”.