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The heatwave that impacted the UK in mid‐July 2022 was not only remarkable for the extent and intensity of the heat, but also for how well it was forecast several weeks in advance. In this short article, we analyse the performance of the GEFS, a global numerical weather prediction model run by the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction, highlighting its ability to forecast 40°C temperatures...
Histogram of the difference in MSLP between 57.25°N, 7.25°W and 56.75°N, 2.25°W using hourly 0.25° ERA5 data for November–March in the period 1 January 1979 to 27 November 2021. The peak value during Storm Arwen (26/27 November 2021) is shown with a red arrow.
On 5 January 2021, the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex dramatically weakened, and the temperature of the Arctic stratosphere rapidly increased in an event known as a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). It is likely that this SSW influenced surface weather conditions for over a month afterward.
The stratospheric polar vortex forms each winter 10–50 km above the surface over the pole, and variations in its strength and position are known to influence the weather we experience. During winter 2018–2019, the Arctic polar vortex was highly variable – with both a sudden stratospheric warming and a strong vortex event. We discuss this unusual evolution of the vortex in terms of climatology and...
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