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Short term load forecasting plays a fundamental role in providing input to economic dispatch and secure operation of power systems. Investigating the volatility of the load time series is essential to improving the performance of short term load forecasting. In this work, based on the threshold characteristics in the volatility of load time series, a novel Hybrid Momentum TAR-GARCH model is proposed...
The analysis on the characteristics of volatility can help to give a more precise description in load time series and may contribute to load forecasting performance. In this study, first, asymmetric effect in load time series is investigated, and the asymmetric ARCH type models, including EGARCH, TARCH, PARCH, and TCGARCH, are introduced as feasible methods for short-term load forecasting. Second,...
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