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In this paper we examine potential improvements in how load and generation forecast uncertainty is captured when setting reserve levels in power systems with significant renewable generation penetration and discuss the merit of proposed new methods in this area. One important difference between methods is whether reserves are defined based on the marginal distribution of forecast errors, as calculated...
Two nonlinear methods for producing short-term spatio-temporal wind speed forecast are presented. From the relatively new class of kernel methods, a kernel least mean squares algorithm and kernel recursive least squares algorithm are introduced and used to produce 1 to 6 hour-ahead predictions of wind speed at six locations in the Netherlands. The performance of the proposed methods are compared to...
A spatio-temporal method for producing very-short-term parametric probabilistic wind power forecasts at a large number of locations is presented. Smart grids containing tens, or hundreds, of wind generators require skilled very-short-term forecasts to operate effectively and spatial information is highly desirable. In addition, probabilistic forecasts are widely regarded as necessary for optimal power...
This paper proposes a statistical method for 1–6 hour-ahead prediction of hourly mean wind speed and direction to better forecast the power produced by wind turbines, an increasingly important component of power system operation. The wind speed and direction are modelled via the magnitude and phase of a complex vector containing measurements from multiple geographic locations. The predictor is derived...
The desire to improve short-term predictions of wind speed and direction has motivated the development of a spatial covariance-based predictor in a complex valued multichannel structure. Wind speed and direction are modelled as the magnitude and phase of complex time series and measurements from multiple geographic locations are embedded in a complex vector which is then used as input to a multichannel...
This paper develops a linear predictor for application to wind speed and direction forecasting in time and across different sites. The wind speed and direction are modelled via themagnitude and phase of a complex-valued time-series. A multichannel adaptive filter is set to predict this signal, based on its past values and the spatio-temporal correlation between wind signals measured at numerous geographical...
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