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The operation system of oil tanker berthing and handling is complicated. Once oil spill accident occurs, consequences are beyond measure. The bosv-tie model is established to have a comprehensive analysis of the causes and consequences of the oil spill during the operation of tanker berthing and handling. The fault tree analysis is applied to analyze the risk factors associated with oil spill, while...
This paper presents a human reliability analysis method based on cognitive process model. Human cognitive processes are modelled in different forms under different risk scenarios respectively. The cognitive process model consists of an event tree based on human cognitive process and Bayesian networks modelling the cognitive phases. The Bayesian networks (combining with evidence theory) use hierarchical...
Chemical process industries often suffer from abnormal events of varying magnitudes, which may lead to different consequences, including incipient faults, near-miss, incidents, and accidents. Typically, when an abnormal event occurs, various safety systems, such as alarm systems and safety instrumented systems (SIS), come into play to prevent the event from propagating. To improve process safety,...
China is striving to build "smooth, efficient, safe, green" transport system, which demand highway to meet traffic safety functional requirements and ensure the safety of roadside ecological environment as well. A lot of research in highway traffic safety at home and abroad have been carried out and achieved considerable results. However, there are few researches to combine the highway traffic...
Firstly, this article introduce foreign theoretical research of risk management in the subway tunnel project from four aspects that evaluation theory, management model, accident statistics, risk analysis. Secondly, the paper analyze foreign practice research of risk management in the subway tunnel project from four aspects that computer simulation, information platform, standards, government regulations...
In the process of coal mine construction, it is significant that how to identify the risk factors and to take measures to prevent the occurrence of safety accidents for the mine investment unit to speed up the construction of the new mines and exploit the coal energy rationally. With the ability of structural equation model that processes the variables and their relationship, this article applied...
The risk analysis of highway traffic safety is a uncertainty system problem. Based on the theory of set pair analysis, stochastic simulation of triangular fuzzy numbers, herein a risk analysis model for the highway traffic safety was discussed. A concept of multi-element connection number of the set pair, which was consisted of evaluation index sets and classification standard sets of the highway...
By analyzing the module and concrete items of risks in ship pilotage, applying Grey theory analysis, brings forward the Grey Theory Analysis Model in ship pilotage risks analysis, Moreover, fuzzy function is taken in the analysis of relative risk factors, achieving the optimal relational coefficient of piloting risk factors, and finally obtaining the relational degree taxis. As indicated in the computing...
This paper describes a well-designed and calibrated simulation model to solve the design of Ships' routeing system which provide useful insights about complex maritime transportation routes. Real data from shanghai port Vessel Traffic Services Center (VTS) are used as input for evaluating four traffic policies. The simulation model mainly focuses on the transit traffic in the channel. This study provides...
The fault tree analysis is a logically structured process that can help identify potential causes of system failure before the failures actually occur. However, traditional fault tree model often suffer from a lack of enough probabilistic basic events to check the consistency of the logic relationship among all events through linkage with gates. Even failures in system operation may have been experienced...
This paper first analyzes the traditional PPDR security model. Then, it puts forward a theory to strengthen network security by building an intelligent warning system, namely, RPRDRE. It is a self-learning and self-evolving system with intelligent warning. The system is active, self-adaptive and survivable whenever attacked by hackers. Design of the system embodies the new concepts in network security,...
With the increasing complexity in software and electronics in safety-critical systems new challenges to lower the costs and decrease time-to-market, while preserving high assurance have emerged. During the safety assessment process, the goal is to minimize the risk and particular, the impact of probable faults on system level safety. Every potential fault must be identified and analysed in order to...
Traditional risk analyses approach for ship collision generally calculates the possibility of ship collision with historical data, mathematical models and consultation of the experts, which only evaluates the present risk level. However, it is obvious that the outcome of the analyses is definitely not appropriate to describe the future of the studied area. This article introduces a new risk analysis...
Uncertainties surrounding reverse logistics create the possibility that the retailer may be strained in meeting financial distress. The current research offers a Markov chain approach to build a random fluctuation model for the early-warning index and analyzes the financial risks stemming from retail reverse logistics activities. The worsened probability for the early-warning index can be inferred...
An innovation feature of this study is modeling real-time car-following risk based on probabilistic concepts. First of all, this paper divided the process of rear-end collision into two stages: first stage is leading vehicle decelerates and the second is the following vehicle can not avoid the collision on the condition of it. On the basis of that, the probability of rear-end collision which used...
The flow increasing of civil aviation requires reducing the separation minima to improve the usability of the airspace, and then we attempt to evaluate the safety of the reduced separation minima so as to ensure the flight safety. This article includes a detailed analysis of the collision risk on the parallel route and intersecting route, and emphasizes on building the united collision risk model...
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